The Laws of Probability Explained

Lecturing the laws of probability is integral to safety training, we explain the risk of employees having or being involved in an accident / incident work. Explaining 1.F.E.Birds theory of the laws of probability sets out a hypothesis that if you do something incorrectly long enough, you can mathematically predict the likelihood, that eventually, things would go wrong and an accident or incident would occur.

Example: Crossing the road is an event that has the potential of causing harm. If a person was not sufficiently observant they were unlikely to cross the road more than 600 times without an event occurring:

• Near miss; car comes down the road and sounds his horn, you step back onto the pavement, frightened but unharmed
• Death; a car comes down the road and hits you and you die

The difference in this scenarios is just a matter of seconds, the drivers too fast or you were too slow. Recently a student pointed out that they would use the Green Cross Code. “Exactly,” I said, “and you would have considerably reduced your chances of been knocked over because you would have carried out your own risk assessment and evaluated the situation, correctly”. I explained further that you were not given six hundred chances to negotiate a road crossing as either event could happen on the first, second, hundredth or on the six-hundredth attempt.

To explain the point further, I asked the class to imagine a pack of 12 cards. Remove all the Aces but one, the Ace of Spades, all the red Kings and keep the rest.

The cards value:

• 2 to 10 are safe cards
• Jacks in the pack are small injuries, cuts and scrapes
• Queens, are more serious accidents and injuries, such as broken bones or/and several days out of work
• Kings, life-changing injuries and finally
• Ace of Spades is death

If all you had to do was take one card out of the pack each year your probability of pulling a card with a danger factor is minimal. However, if each time you cut corners, leave work unsafe, didn’t conduct proper and accurate risk assessments you needed to take another card from the pack. This would increase your probability of pulling a card with a risk.

Which is what we do each day. Which is why health and safety should be properly practiced in the workplace. Each time procedures aren’t followed, you don’t check equipment or don’t do appropriate checks this heightens your risk and others of having an accident in the workplace. The Laws of Probability can significantly be reduced with correct training for your environment.

Why not speak to us today and see how we can help protect you and your employees?

1. In 1969, Frank E. Bird Jr. committed to a study of industrial accidents based on the previous research of H.W. Heinrich, which established the ratio of 1 major injury to 29 minor injuries to 300 no-injury accidents. later this was changed to 1 in every 600 to allow for a greater range.